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Michael Beale? More like Jeremy Beadle.

  • Writer: James
    James
  • Oct 10, 2022
  • 3 min read

Updated: 2 days ago

Game for a laugh? You’d have to be to swallow this nonsense:


“I’ve seen a statistic that he’s [Gerrard’s] won 10 in 30 or nine in 30, and I think for Aston Villa, if you look over the years, that would probably be the average of them coaches.”

Excusing the poor grammar doesn’t make the ‘statistic’ any more true.


Is it ten in 30 or 9 in 30?


No it’s 12 in 38.


So how does that compare to “the average of them coaches”?


Well what are we comparing to? Dean Smith’s last 38 games? 12 in 38. Snap.


But that takes into account a period of games that led to Smith’s sacking so surely that’s unrepresentative.


How about Dean Smith’s first 38 of 2019-20 on Villa’s return to the Premier League? 12 in 38. Snap.


But that takes into account a period of games that saw a new team, unaccustomed to top flight or even in some cases, English football, embark on a first season since promotion back to the Premier League. So surely that’s unrepresentative.


How about then Dean Smith’s second Premier League season over the first 38 games? 16 in 38.


  • Dean Smith’s first 38 overall? 19 in 38.

  • Steve Bruce? 16 in 38.

  • Roberto Di Matteo - didn’t get to 38 games

  • Rémi Garde - didn’t get to 38 games

  • Tim Sherwood - didn’t get to 38 games

  • Paul Lambert? 13 in 38, Ouch to be out-performed by Lambert, imagine that.

  • Alex McLeish? 10 in 38, tick to Gerrard

  • Gérard Houllier? didn’t get to 38 games

  • Martin O’Neill? 11 in 38, tick to Gerrard

  • David O’Leary? 17 in 38

  • Graham Taylor? 13 in 38

  • John Gregory? 24 in 38


So of all the Villa managers since 1997 to make it to the same number of games as the under pressure Liverpudlian, only Alex McLeish and Martin O’Neill had a worse win record.


(O’Neill incidentally drew 15 of those 38 games - the most since the 1980s)





How about Jeremy Beadle’s “average” then?


15 wins in 38 games is the average record over the last 25 years of Villa managers.


That is Villa managers who since 1997 have led the side for an equivalent of a full season - as Gerrard has.


That average is 28% better than the level that Gerrard has achieved.


But in Beadle speak “that would probably be the average of them coaches.”


Put that into context and taking ’28% better’ being parity in Beadle Gerrard world - well we wouldn’t have won the title for the 8th time but we’d have been having a whale of a time.


After all, Smith and Gerrard would have led Villa to 7th last season having finished 3rd under Smith in 2020-21 ahead of Liverpool and finishing 13th in their return to the top flight in 2019-20.


Villa would have won promotion from the Championship in both 2017-18 and 2018-19, winning the title in both seasons and breaking 100 points in the former.


But yet Villa could well have not been there in the first place as they’d have finished in the play off places in 2016-17, and we all know that’s a lottery.


Rémi Garde would still have relegated us mind in 2015-16 but Tim Sherwood would have led the team in his inimitable style to 10th in 2014-15 with a Cup Final to boot.


Lambert would have delivered successive 8th and 11th placed finishes whilst the forever derided Alex McLeish would have chalked up 10th place and Gérard Houllier would have sent us to a fourth successive 6th place.


Martin O’Neill would have added a third place behind Chelsea and Manchester United to his fourth places in 2008-09 and 2007-08 whilst his debut season would have delivered a top five finish.


David O’Leary would sit on successive finishes of 4th, 5th and 10th before his departure.


Whilst Graham Taylor’s annus horribilis would have been marked with 8th place and John Gregory would have beaten Chelsea to 6th in his final season, following 3rd place ahead of Liverpool in 2000-01, having finished runners up to Manchester United in 1999-00 and fourth place in his first full season.


But we didn’t did we? In the same way as Gerrard’s record isn’t as good as theirs it is?


After all, as Beadle says himself:


“I think people can get a little bit carried away because he is a big name.”

All too true Jeremy, all too true.


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