Just how bad is he?

Let’s start with Loss Rate.

Gerrard, post West Ham, has a loss rate of 48.48%, the same loss rate as Tommy Cummings who led Villa in the second tier between July 1967 and November 1968 and who eventually was sacked after 64 games.

The only Villa boss with a worse loss rate than Gerrard or Cummings is Dick Taylor (August 1964 to May 1967) on 51.52% and who was incidentally replaced by Cummings.

Should Gerrard lose to Arsenal and Manchester City, Gerrard would be bottom of the pile after 35 games with a loss rate of 51.43%.

For context:

• Paul Lambert had a loss rate of 42.86% at the same point,

• Billy McNeill, sacked after 43 games with Villa relegated, had 40.00%,

• Alex McLeish, sacked after 44 games, 37.14%.

That is bad.

Potentially record breakingly bad for Gerrard if the next two results end in defeat.

On to win rate:

Gerrard currently has a win rate of 36.36% a feat he shares with Jimmy McMullan (mastermind of Villa’s first ever relegation in 1936), Jimmy Hogan, Tommy Docherty (who hurtled Villa into the third tier for the first time in their history in 1970), Graham Turner (who along with Herbert Douglas Ellis presided over the dismantling of a European Cup winning squad) and Jozef Vengloš (a thoroughly decent man but a perennial figure of fun for many).

That isn’t auspicious company by any stretch of the imagination.

Should Gerrard fail to beat Arsenal and Manchester City his win rate would dwindle further to 34.29% after 35 games with only five managers with a worse record.

Sounds ok-ish?

Not really. Crucially none of those worse off than Gerrard for wins have anything like as poor a loss rate.

• Billy McNeill 40.00%

• Paul Lambert 42.86%

• Alex McLeish 37.14%

• Martin O’Neill 34.29%

• Graham Taylor (2002-03) 42.86%

For context Gerrard would have a win rate of 34.29% and a loss rate of 51.43%.

That is comfortably the worst combination of any Villa manager of any era.

On to Points per Game.

In many ways this is the absolute measure of performance as it takes into account draws, as well as losses and victories. Normalised at 3 points for a win the situation is currently:

Gerrard has earned on average 1.24 points for every game played.

Should Gerrard lost to Arsenal and Manchester City this would fall to just 1.17 points per game with only one manager, Billy McNeill, worse off.

Yet McNeill's loss rate stands at 39.39% vs. Gerrard's 48.48% after 33 games.

So again Gerrard - based on winning vs. Losing is comfortably the worst manager Villa have had.

Of course we could beat Arsenal - Trez inspired us in 2019-20, Ollie in 2020-21 - indeed over the seasons there have been some strong performances at the Emirates when we have been written off.

Of course we could beat Manchester City - at least now that Jonathan Moss has retired as we’ll only be facing 11 players at any one time.

But in truth it will probably be a record breaking period for all the wrong reasons, even a point, so welcome in the context of the season, would do little to change the fact that Gerrard really is the worst of the worst Villa have ever had.