AVFC History Comment

We admit to feeling torn. A season full of disappointment, perhaps the first backward step since 2017, brightened by the emergence of youth and new Villa boys, is set against the need to throw our weight and support behind a new regime.

The sad fact is though that to date Steven Gerrard’s appointment has not been a success.

The statistics speak for themselves.

The performances tell at times an even worse story.

We are promised a close season of squad revolution.

The spend to fix all approach always holds off reality but we know from the recent past all too well the damage a sub-par manager can do to a squad.

Concerns abound about the treatment of some players and the morale of others.

For all Dean Smith’s lack of media flash he had his boys’ backs and they his too.

Gerrard is young, media friendly and a great colleague of Christian Purslow.

As a result it is unlikely Gerrard’s performance since November will come under the same scrutiny as others but it really is worth considering:

• Steven Gerrard's points per game standing is 22nd of 31 Villa bosses after 28 games - firmly bottom half.

• Gerrard's win rate is 18th out of 31 over the same period

• Worryingly, Gerrard's loss rate is 26th, the 5th worst of any Villa boss at the same point.

Comparing the end of the Smith regime to Gerrard’s tenure so far illustrates just how much improvement is required:

• Dean Smith’s last 28 games delivered W9 D6 L13

• Steven Gerrard’s first 28 games have delivered W10 D5 L13

Gerrard has accumulated one more win than Smith, whilst Smith accumulated one more draw than Gerrard.

Both managers lost 13 games but Dean Smith’s 13th defeat ended in the sack.

But what of the opponents?

For both managers their 28 games were against opponents with an average placing of 10th in the Premier League.

Smith played 9 top 6 teams in his 28 games.

Likewise, Gerrard played played 9 top 6 teams in his 28 games.

Both managers played teams in the top 3 five times.

However Smith played 4 relegated teams whilst Gerrard played 5 relegated teams.

By any measure Smith and Gerrard have had the same ‘run in’ and no improvement has been seen following the change of manager.

Taking Smith’s entire Premier League career following promotion from the Championship with a completely new squad largely made up of top flight novices, and comparing to Gerrard’s performance with a squad of 3 years top flight experience:

• Smith delivered a record of W36 D18 L46

Over exactly 100 Premier League games, Smith delivered a win rate of 36%, an unbeaten rate of 54% and a loss rate of 46%.

• Gerrard has delivered a win rate of 36%, an unbeaten rate of 54% and a loss rate of 46%.

Once again the performances are exactly the same despite Smith having initially led an inexperienced side in the top flight and ultimately being sacked for underperformance.

The arrival of Boubacar Kamara is an excellent start but in one of Gerrard’s own much loved phrases:

“Listen…. There is work to do.”